The study subsidizes the National Plan for Strengthening Health Homes, launched last 7/15, and the most recent projection reveals that, in nine years, women will be the majority among physicians and more than 80% of the population of these professionals will have between 22 and 45 years old. The partnership between the Ministry of Health, through the Department of Labor Management and Health Education (SGTES), the University of São Paulo (USP) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO/WHO), has been mapping the offer of doctors in the country with the ProvMed 2030.
The research aims to contribute to the planning of public human resources policies that meet the real needs of the population and the health system. The last analysis, published in Technical Report No. 4/2021, also highlights a significant increase in the population of physicians. It was identified that, from 2010 to 2020, the number of professionals increased from 315,902 to 487,275 and, according to the proposed model, it should reach 815,570 doctors by 2030.
Another fact that deserves to be highlighted is that women will be the majority in the category in 2030. This phenomenon has been taking shape in Brazil since 2010, when women already represented more than 50% of the total number of professionals who graduated from medical courses. The study concludes that the higher proportion of women in the physician population can be explained by the evolution of age pyramids over time.
In 2010, the population of men was proportionally larger from the age of 51 to 55 years, while the base of the pyramid was more populated by young doctors, especially in the age group of 26 to 30 years of age. In 2020, the age group between 51 and 55 years old had a similar proportion of male and female physicians, while in the 26 to 30 and 31 to 35 year age groups, women were 12% more prevalent than men.
The study highlights that the average age of Brazilian physicians will decrease, revealing a younger profession. According to the projection, by the year 2030, more than 80% of doctors will be between 22 and 45 years old.
The findings of Medical Demography in Brazil21, together with the results obtained by the projections of the researched model, indicate that the physician/inhabitant ratio in Brazil will increase from 1.90 to 3.63 between 2010 and 2030, an increase of almost 100%.
The ProvMed 2030 studies the development and application of models for analyzing the provision and need of physicians and specialists in Brazil. The objective is to build a model to carry out projections on the supply and demand of professionals. Based on the studies, it is possible to propose more effective changes in human resources training and management policies with a focus on improving the population's health and living conditions.
The study supported the construction of the National Plan for Strengthening Health Homes and identified the need to expand and qualify the actions developed by the Ministry of Health for homes through educational offers and granting of incentives, in addition to support actions for the creation, reactivation and restructuring of programs.
With information from the Ministry of Health
Health and Health Surveillance