Posted on 06/08/2022 14:16
Brazil should hit a new record in agricultural production in the current harvest
The estimates are based on surveys carried out by Conab, which predicts a production of 271.3 million tons of grain, and by the IBGE, which points to 263 million tons - Photo: Banco de Imagens
Brazil is heading towards the conclusion of the 2021/2022 grain harvest and the expectation is for a new record, both in the estimates of the National Supply Company (Conab) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
In the case of Conab, the 9th Grain Harvest Survey, released this Wednesday (06/08), points to an estimated production of 271.3 million tons. The volume represents an increase of 6.2% over the previous season, which means about 15.8 million tonnes.
The 5th Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released by the IBGE also this Wednesday, predicts a record production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated at 263 million tons, 3.8% above that obtained in 2021, when they were 253.2 million tons of grain were harvested.
According to the IBGE, the growth in the estimate is explained by the performance of corn, wheat and soybean production. Corn, with the sum of its two crops, should total 112 million tons. It is a growth of 27.6% in comparison with what was produced last year.
Conab also points to a recovery of corn, which, even affected by weather conditions, will have an increase in production of 32.3%. “In this harvest, the climatic behavior and the low rainfall (little rain), especially in the central-south region, caused significant losses to corn and soybean crops, as we have already observed and have been disclosing for a long time”, said the president of Conab, Guilherme Ribeiro. With stable production in the 1st harvest of corn, close to 24.8 million tons, the 2nd harvest of the grain tends to register an increase, in the estimates of Conab, of approximately 45% if compared to the previous cycle, going from 60, 7 million tons to 88 million tons.
As in the case of corn, the cold weather did not have a major impact on total cotton production. According to Conab, for lint alone, a harvest of 2.81 million tons is expected, an increase of 19.3% when compared to the 2020/2021 cycle. As for beans, the low temperatures impacted the yields of the 2nd crop of the legume. Color beans had a reduction in productivity of 31.8%, while black beans decreased by 19.7%.
Soybeans and rice are practically harvested. For the oilseed, Conab estimates 124.3 million tons produced, a reduction of 10.1% in relation to the previous harvest, while rice should reach a production of 10.6 million tons, a volume 9.9% lower than the produced in the previous cycle.
The IBGE predicts that soybean production should total 118.6 million tons, down 12.1% compared to 2021.
The planting of winter crops is already underway. Highlight for wheat, the main grain sown in the country. Conab's current estimate is for a production of 8.4 million tons, a new record for the grain if the result is confirmed. This forecast is also confirmed by the IBGE, which forecasts a production of 8.9 million tons, a growth of 13.6% compared to last year. “Keeping that estimate of wheat, it's a record crop for this year. A crop that is very important for Brazil, since it imports a certain amount to maintain consumption and this production came at a good time, since there is a conflict with Ukraine, with Russia, which are major producers and exporters of wheat. ”, highlighted the Agriculture manager at IBGE, Carlos Alfredo Guedes.
The estimate of the total cultivated area in the country in this harvest is 73.7 million hectares, an increase of 5.7% over the previous harvest in the Conab projections and of 72.3 million hectares, 5.5% higher than the area harvested in 2021, in the IBGE survey.
The IBGE's Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) provides estimates of planted area, harvested area, produced quantity and average yield of selected products based on criteria of economic and social importance for the country. The research allows not only the monitoring of each crop investigated, from the planting intention phase until the end of the harvest, in the reference calendar year, but also the forecast of the next year's crop, for which the survey is carried out in the months of October, November and December.