Professor at UFAL (Federal University of Alagoas) and UFPI (Federal University of Piauí). Master and PhD in political science from UFMG, with a sandwich period at the University of Salamanca (Spain). Leader of the research group Institutions, Political Behavior and Democracy and director of the Northeast region of the ABCP (Brazilian Association of Political Science)
Journalist, master and doctoral student in social sciences at UFJF and researcher at Nepol (Núcleo de Estudos sobre Política Local)
Once the electoral campaign to choose new governors and female governors has started and polls for voting intentions have been carried out, it is now possible to have an idea of ??in which states the dispute can be closed even in the first round and where it is more fierce. Due to the fact that state and national elections take place simultaneously, the definition of the result of the election for governors in the first round can have important implications for the presidential race, which, it seems, will be decided in the second round.
Those elected in the first round will be able to dedicate themselves fully to the election of their ally in the presidential race. This can be particularly important in the country's large electoral colleges. There is also the possibility that candidates so far reticent to declare support for Lula (PT) or Bolsonaro (PL), once elected, feel safer to take a stand. Furthermore, in states where there is a second round, it is very likely that the dispute for the state government will end up reproducing the national polarization in a more intense way.
State disputes with a chance of decision in the 1st round
Considering the opinion polls, it is observed that in 13 federative units there are chances of the dispute ending in the first round: Acre, Bahia, Distrito Federal, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Pará, Paraná, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Roraima and Tocantins. In 11 of them the governors are seeking re-election. We analyzed the possibility of victory in the first round considering the intention to vote for the candidate, based on the most recent IPEC polls, released in the second half of August, and how much this would represent in terms of valid votes - excluding whites , null and undecided.
The candidates best positioned to finish the game in the first round are ACM Neto (UB), in Bahia, with 69% and Renato Casagrande (PSB), in Espírito Santo, with 68%.
Then appear Mauro Mendes (UB) in Mato Grosso with 63% and Helder Barbalho (MDB) in Pará with 62% (the latter, according to a survey by the RealTime Big Data Institute at the end of July).
Ronaldo Caiado (UB), Ratinho Jr. (PSD) and Fátima Bezerra (PT) appear with 60% in Goiás, Paraná and Rio Grande do Norte, respectively. With rates between 50% and 60%, also with chances of being elected in the first round, appear Romeu Zema (Novo) in Minas Gerais, with 58%, Antônio Denarium (PP) in Roraima and Wanderlei Barbosa in Tocantins, both with 52% , and Silvio Mendes (UB) and Gladson Cameli (PP), both with 51%, in Piauí and Acre, respectively.
This scenario signals the possibility that, at the end of the first round, União Brasil, a party created in 2021 from the merger between DEM and PSL, will elect four governors. It also signals a greater trend of continuity in the Central-West region, since the current governors can be reelected in the first round in three of the four states in the region, the exception being Mato Grosso do Sul. It is also worth mentioning the advantage of the former mayor of Salvador ACM Neto in Bahia and Romeu Zema in Minas Gerais, two of the largest electoral colleges in the country.
State disputes with a chance of decision in the 2nd round
In another 14 states, research suggests that the dispute will be decided in the second round: Alagoas, Amapá, Amazonas, Ceará, Maranhão, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Rondônia, Santa Catarina, Sao Paulo and Sergipe. In seven states, the current governors lead the race and should reach the second round with an advantage, according to the latest Ipec polls. However, that doesn't mean they will have an easy time on the way to possible re-election.